Monday, Nov 30

GSE ends August 2020 on a bearish note

The Ghana Stock Exchange ended the last week of August bearish on account of selling pressure in some consumer staple stocks– Fan Milk Ltd and Unilever Ghana Ltd. This was spurred by the daunting outlook of their 2020-half-year earnings report.

Fan Milk Ghana Ltd. had its net-profit-after-tax trimmed by 93.35 percent from the GH¢10.57 million recorded in June 2019 to GH¢703,000 in June 2020. This significantly lowered its earnings per share from 9 pesewas in June 2019 to a pesewa in June 2020.

Unilever Ghana Ltd, on the other hand, worsened its outlook as it posted a negative profit-after-tax of GH¢16.84 million from a positive profit-after-tax of GH¢17.09 million.

gse indices 1

On the back of this, the GSE Composite Index thus eased by 38 basis points to settle at an index level of 1,840.07 points, representing a year-to-date loss of 18.48 per cent. The GSE Financial Stocks Index was, however, unchanged at 1,687.40 points, reflecting a year-to-date loss of 16.45 per cent.

Gse indices

The last week of August’s trade realized a total volume of 9.59 million stocks valued at GH¢7.64 million on the bourse. This represents over hundred percent increment over the previous week’s outturn in terms of volume of traded stocks.

Most traded stocks in terms of volume

MTN Ghana Ltd. led the activity chart with 51.18 percent share of the overall traded volume. Market capitalization also went down by 0.21 percent to settle at GH¢52,464.48 million on 4th September 2020.

GSE MARKET INDICATORS

Stock Price Movements

stock price movement advancers

At the paring of the week (28th August –4th September 2020) under review’s opening and closing prices, 1 advancer and 2 laggards were recorded on the bourse. Cocoa Processing Company Ltd was the sole advancer, it gained 1 pesewa to trade at 3 pesewas.

losers weeks

Unilever Ghana Ltd recorded the worst decline in the week’s trade, losing GHS1.13 pesewas to trade at GHS10.21 per share. Fan Milk Ltd also went down by 19 pesewas to trade at GHS1.04 per share.

 Treasury securities

Treasury securities

The yield on the Government of Ghana Treasury Securities witnessed mixed adjustment at the week’s (28th August –4th September 2020) auction. Interest rate on the 91-Day T-Bill rate dropped by 4 basis points to settle at 14.02 percent. The yields on the 182-Day T-Bill rose by 3 basis points to 14.11 percent and that on the 364-Day T-Bill also increased by 8 basis points to settle at 16.91 percent.

The interest rates on the Government of Ghana’s Treasury Notes and Bonds were, however, unchanged as they were not part of the week’s auction.

results of auction 4th september 2020

Government raised a total of GH¢1,026.57 million from the issuance of the 91-Day, 182-Day, and 364-Day T-Bills in the week under review. The amount raised outstripped the previous week’s value of GH¢806.94 million but missed the week’s target of GH¢1,410.00 million.

The 91-Day T-Bill was the most accepted bid by the Government as it constituted 87.73 percent of the overall bids purchased. A target of GHS919.00 million was set for the next auction from the sale of the 91-Day and 182-Day T-Bills.

Yield

Currency market

currency market

The Ghana Cedi posted a recovery against the British Pound and the Euro but extended its loss versus the US Dollar. The US Dollar recorded its biggest weekly gain in two-and-half months on the international currency market after US Fed Vice Chair cleared the myth surrounding the newly adopted monetary policy that seeks to achieve an average inflation rate of 2 percent to balance impacts of super-low inflation; thereby ensuring economic recovery in the US.

The greenback’s lift was further supported by Fed’s hawkish commentary about the gradual pace of economic recovery from the pandemic as US Manufacturing sector expanded for the third straight month in August with the PMI rising by 1.8 points to 56 points. The US dollar thus ended with a weekly appreciation of 0.16 percent as it traded at GH¢5.6969 on the interbank currency. The year-to-date depreciation of the local currency thus rose to 2.82 percent.

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The British pound was on the defensive against major rivals on the international currency market on rekindled uncertainties surrounding the Brexit. The lack of progress to obtain a favourable deal from the European Union amidst the uncertainties in the chances of UK’s Government to secure the deal as the possibility dwindled to 30-40 percent significantly affected market sentiment. The British Pound thus, depreciated by 0.87 percent to reduce its selling price to GH¢7.52 on the interbank currency market. The year-to-date depreciation of the cedi reduced to 2.66 percent.

The Euro was knocked down by ill-sentiment surrounding the slow recovery of economic activities in the Eurozone. Eurozone’s consumer prices and unemployment data came in much disappointing than expected despite the easing of the COVID-19 restrictions. Eurozone unemployment rose further in July to 7.9 percent, representing 20 basis points increment over the previous month’s reading of 7.7 percent. Consumer prices also failed to sustain its recovery as it reversed the upward trend in August. The Index fell by 0.2 percent in August against the 0.4 percent rise recorded in July affecting the demand for the currency. The Euro thus posted a weekly depreciation of 0.80 percent to trade at GH¢6.72. The year-to-date depreciation of the cedi thus reduced to 7.48 percent.

Commodities

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Brent crude oil lowered its value on the international commodities market, posting its biggest weekly decline since June 2020 on lackluster demand on the global market. China– the world’ largest crude importer is expected to reduce its demand due to stockpile of the commodity amidst gradual opening of its refineries. Brent crude oil thus shed 91 cents to trade at US$44.14 per barrel.

Gold came under pressure in the week’s trade as investors shifted their safe haven focus from the yellow metal to the US dollar as they digested the newly adopted monetary policy of the US Fed. The plan to halt interest rate hike for years to achieve its average inflation target of 2 percent made the greenback a preferable safe haven for investors. Gold thus shed US$29.60 to trade at US$1,945.30 per ounce. 

Cocoa tumbled as favourable climatic conditions in Ivory Coast subdued the likely impact of the joint policy initiatives adopted by Ghana and Ivory Coast to regulate the market. Recent downpour with an average rainfall of 6.9 millimetres in Ivory Coast is expected to improve the October-March production output, hence, adversely affecting the value of the crop on the international market. Cocoa, thus, went down by US$51.50 to close at US$2,640.50 per metric tonne.

Coffee was lifted further by falling inventories and resurgence of the Brazilian Real in the week’s trade.  The continued reduction in the supply of beans from Brazil and Vietnam onto the international commodities market and the 0.72 percent appreciation of the Real supported the soft crop. Coffee added 8 cents to trade at US$1.35 per pound.    

-IGS Financial Services

Ghana Stock Exchange’s Weak Performance Continues in 2020

Ghana Stock Exchange’s Weak Performance Continues in 2020

Trading on the Ghana Stock Exchange ended on a mixed note in May 2020, with the benchmark Composite Index heading further southwards on account of significant selling pressure by the telecommunication giant– MTN Ghana and some consumable stocks.

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The GSE Composite Index, thus, recorded a decline of 353 basis points to settle at 1,941.03 points, corresponding to a year-to-date loss of 14.01 percent.

The GSE Financial Stocks Index on the other hand, surged by 12 basis points in the month of trading despite ill-sentiment surrounding the dividend suspension which affected the index in other previous month’s trading. The index stood at 1,843.10 points, corresponding to a year-to-date loss of 8.74 percent.

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Market outturns, however, improved significantly in May, with a total of 35.40 million shares valued at GH¢21.11 million exchanging hands. MTN Ghana Ltd led the activity chart with 98.75 percent share of the overall traded volume. Market capitalization, however, dropped by 1.36 percent to GH¢53,542.60 million at end of the month’s trade.

The Ghana Stock Exchange has been on a downward trend for two consecutive years, with the Composite index declining by 0.29 percent and the financial index also declining by 6.79 percent in 2018.

The situation was the same in 2019, with the composite index declining by 12.25 percent and the financial index also declining by 6.23 percent.

In 2020, the Composite index has so far declined by 14.55 percent year to date, with the financial index also declining by 10.86 percent year to date.

Stock price movements

In the week ending May 29, seven equities altered their share prices, with Ecobank Ghana Ltd. emerging as the sole price advancer; it upped by 4 pesewas to trade at GH¢7.49 per share.

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On the flip side, NewGold led the pack of six losers; it dipped by GH¢3.20. Benso Oil Palm Plantation and MTN Ghana Ltd also eased by 15 pesewas and 6 pesewas to trade at GH¢2.50 and 55 pesewas per share, respectively. Fan Milk Ltd and Ghana Oil Company Ltd slipped by a pesewa each to settle at GH¢3.38 and GH¢1.58 per share, respectively. Total Petroleum Ghana Ltd also inched down by a pesewa to trade at GH¢2.49 per share.

Government of Ghana treasury securities

For the week, ending May 29, the yield on the 91-Day T-Bill moderated by 4 basis points to settle at 14.02 percent. That on the 182-Day and 364-Day T-Bills however inched up by 2 basis points and 18 basis points as they settled at 14.07 percent and 16.88 percent, respectively.

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The 3-year bond, which was issued to both domestic and foreign investors to finance government project and maturing bills, had its yields trimmed by 50 basis points to 18.85 percent.   Yields on other Government of Ghana’s Treasury Notes and Bonds were, however, unchanged.

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As largely anticipated, the term structure of Government of Ghana treasury securities sustained its normality. The commitment by the central bank in ensuring that yields on long-dated treasury securities are relatively attractive over their short-dated ones coupled with the safe-haven nature of the money market amidst continued investor confidence in the domestic economy are factors accounting for the normality of the yield curve. It is also anticipated that irrespective of the Government’s demand for funds to service maturing bills and also finance its developmental projects, yields on treasury securities will maintain their downtrend. 

Currency market

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On the interbank currency market, the Ghana cedi depreciated against all the three major trading currencies in May. The US dollar advanced on the international currency market as the heightened US-China trade tension rather increased the demand for the safe-haven currency despite disappoiInting consumer data. US Consumer spending for April declined by 13.6 percent; worse than the 6.9 percent dip recorded in March. The Dollar thus rode on this development as it posted a weekly gain of 0.09 to sell at GH¢5.62 per share. The year-to-date depreciation of the cedi thus increased to 1.54 percent.  

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The British Pound eased to a two-month low on account of post Brexit worries and speculations of a negative interest rate policy by the Bank of England. Lingering uncertainty over Britain's trading relationship with the EU-Post Brexit cast a dim outlook on the economy as both parties took an entrenched position. The Pound was further knocked down by the growing speculations that the Bank of England intends to adopt a negative interest rates to mitigate the adverse effect of the COVID-19 on UK’s economy. In spite of this, the Pound upped its selling price to GH¢6.92 as the cedi posted a week-on-week depreciation of 1.13 percent. The year-to-date appreciation of cedi thus narrowed to 5.74 percent.

The Euro appreciated on the international currency market on improved investors’ confidence on a recovery of the bloc. The European Union’s unveiling of a 750-billion-euro recovery-comprising 500 billion euros in grants and 250 billion euros in loans to support member states affected by the COVID-19 pandemic buoyed market sentiment in the trading week. The Euro thus traded at GH¢6.24 on the interbank currency market, representing a week-on-week gain of 2.02 percent. The year-to-date depreciation of the cedi thus increased to 0.48 percent.

Commodities

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Brent crude oil posted a marginal gain in May, despite a rekindled trade dispute between the US and China which affected market activities. The upsurge of the energy commodity was driven by the uptick in global demand which resulted in a significant rise in the exportation of crude oil worldwide. Brent crude oil thus added 10 cents to trade at US$35.23 per barrel.

Gold closed the trading month lower despite a strong rebound associated with the heightened trade tension and downbeat unemployment data from the US. The negative closure of the yellow metal stemmed from the general upbeat sentiment which characterized the global market following the reopening of some economies which stimulated risk taking activities to dim the appeal for the yellow metal. Gold thus shed US$9.40 to trade at US$1,726.10 per ounce.

Cocoa surged on the international commodities market as the unfavorable climatic conditions inhibiting production in top grower – Ivory Coast contributed to the upward review of its pricing. Ivory Coast recorded lower volumes of rainfall than required to support cocoa production as the current rainfall of 23.8 millimeters (mm) fell significantly below the 5-year average of 43.3 millimeters (mm). Cocoa thus gained US$36.50 to trade at US$2,430.50 per metric tonne.

Coffee dropped to its lowest in three-and-half months on account of bumper harvest in Brazil and the weakening of the Brazilian real against major international currencies. Coffee traded below the US$1.00 benchmark after losing 4 pesewas to sell at 99.92 cents per pound.

Source IGS Financial Services Limited

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